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 hile
military operations against the insurgency movements
in the Northeast have achieved only limited results,
it is the dialogue for peace with them that has brought
some order to the region. Dialogue with the Mizo National
Front (MNF) culminated in the signing of the Mizo Peace
Accord in 1986 ending the 20-year-long insurrection
in the entire state of Mizoram in 1986. The December
3, 2003 en masse surrender of the cadres of the Bodo
Liberation Tigers (BLT) and subsequent formation of
the Bodoland Territorial Council (BTC) solved a near
decade long insurgency in the areas inhabited by the
Bodo tribals in Assam. Such experiences, however, have
remained rare events. Other peace deals such as the
Shillong Accord in 1975 with the Naga National Council
(NNC) in Nagaland, the 1988 agreement with the Tripura
National Volunteers (TNV) in Tripura, the Bodoland Autonomous
Council (BAC) agreement of 1993 with the Bodo hardliners
in Assam fell through as new factions, dissatisfied
with the terms of the agreement resumed hostilities
under new leaderships.
At present, the Union government has ongoing ceasefire
agreements with several insurgent groups in different
states. The oldest one with the National Socialist Council
of Nagaland-Isak-Muivah (NSCN-IM) dates back to July
25, 1997 and the other one with its bete noire, the
National Socialist Council of Nagaland-Khaplang (NSCN-K)
has lasted since April 28, 2001. In Assam, the following
organizations have ceasefire agreements with the government:
Adivasi Cobra Militant Force (ACMF) since September
19, 2001, Dima Halim Daogah (DHD) since January 1, 2003,
the United People’s Democratic Solidarity (UPDS)
since May 23, 2002, Birsa Commando Force (BCF) since
August 14, 2004 and the National Democratic Front of
Bodoland (NDFB) since May 25, 2005. The Alfa and Charlie
companies of the ULFA's 28th Battalion are also on a
ceasefire with the government since June 24, 2008. But,
the anti-talk factions of the NDFB and DHD are still
active. However, after the arrest of their leader, Jewel
Garlossa, the anti-talk faction of DHD has also declared
a unilateral ceasefire for three months starting June
7, 2009.
Similarly, in the state of Meghalaya, the Achik National
Volunteer Council (ANVC) has had a ceasefire agreement
with the government since July 23, 2004. In Manipur,
the Government has signed Suspension of Operations (SoO)
with the Kuki rebel outfits on Aug 22, 2008. In Tripura,
the Nayanbashi Jamatiya faction of the National Liberation
Front of Tripura (NLFT) has been observing a ceasefire
with the government since March 2004.
The insurgents, too, have used the tactic of peace
to gain strategic advantage vis-à-vis the security
forces. This has been the most evident in case of the
United Liberation Front of Asom (ULFA) in Assam. Beginning
the early 1990s, when nearly half of the ULFA's existing
cadres came overground responding to the then Assam
Chief Minister Hiteswar Saikia's appeal for peace, ULFA
has tended to show its inclination for a process of
dialogue with the government, whenever the outfit is
in trouble. The Government has mostly responded in good
faith, often acting contrary to the advices of the army
authorities, only to find that the outfit has used the
interregnum for bolstering its dwindling strength. Another
example of this tactic was on display in 2005, when
the outfit, with many of its senior leaders and cadres
encircled in the Manabhum Reserve Forest in Arunachal
Pradesh, constituted the People's Consultative Group
(PCG) to prepare the ground work for negotiations with
the government. Pressured by the people, the government
called off the military operations allowing the cornered
ULFA leaders/cadres to get a breather. The PCG held
three rounds of dialogue with the union government over
a period of one year. The process, however, collapsed
in September 2006 as both sides continued proposing
conditions and counter-conditions. In the meantime,
the outfit had sufficiently strengthened itself to pose
sufficient challenges to the security forces.
With ULFA’s 28th battalion declaring ceasefire
with the government since June 24, 2008, it is expected
that peace efforts in the state would gain momentum.
But talks have not yet started, even after more than
a year of the ceasefire. This has led to frustration
among the cadres living in the designated camps, with
a few of them even going back to join the ULFA.
Civil society groups in the Northeast have played
key roles in the conflict management/resolution process.
Both the Young Mizo Association (YMA) and the Church
played significant roles in the finalisation of the
Mizo Accord. In Nagaland, the Naga Hoho, the Church,
the Naga Mothers' Association (NMA) have been instrumental
in the 1997 ceasefire between the NSCN-IM and New Delhi.
In the resolution of the BLT insurgency, organisations
like the Bodo Sahitya Sabha (BSS) and the All Bodo Students
Union (ABSU) have made crucial contributions. In Manipur,
the Meira Paibis (Women Torch bearers) have made significant
attempts for the establishment of peace. In Meghalaya,
the role of the Church in bringing the ANVC overground
is crucial. In Assam, the All Assam Students Union (AASU)
and the Assam Sahitya Sabha have made several attempts
at establishing peace.
It is important to note, however, that the effectiveness
of these organisations, have depended on the level of
acceptability that these have enjoyed with the insurgents.
Thus, whereas the Church, as a pressure group and a
peace broker, has been successful in Christian majority
states of Nagaland, Mizoram and Meghalaya, efficacy
of community based organisations in Assam, Manipur and
Tripura has only been marginal.
Whereas ceasefire agreements have led to a reduction
in the insurgency-related fatalities in the respective
states, the Union government has not been able to carve
out a road map toward a situation of permanent agreement.
In many cases, the process of dialogue is yet to formally
start with the outfits. For example, not a single round
of formal dialogue has started with the UPDS, DHD, ACF,
NDFB and the ANVC despite these groups entering into
a truce with the authorities. It has created enough
divisions among the outfits’ cadres and more often
than not, a sizeable section of the outfits has deserted
the parent group to start the ‘war’ afresh.
The insurgent groups under ceasefire, on the other hand,
have taken advantage of the protracted peace processes
and continued with their activities such as extortion
and abduction with impunity. In Nagaland, fratricidal
clashes between the NSCN-IM and the NSCN-K have remained
a major issue of concern. In Assam, even after its moves
for peace, ULFA continues to indulge in sporadic acts
of violence.
Lack of success of the peace processes has further
created enough misgivings among the active insurgent
outfits about the sincerity of the government to drive
the negotiations to their logical conclusions. For example
in Manipur, the valley based insurgent outfits including
the United National Liberation Front (UNLF) have raised
frequent questions about the usefulness of a ceasefire
with the government and have called for resolution of
the conflict only with the intervention of the United
Nations (UN). The talks with NSCN (IM), the latest being
held in March 2009 at Zurich in Switzerland, have also
not succeeded in setting the stage for a solution to
the Naga problem.
Tripura, Meghalaya, Mizoram and Arunachal Pradesh
can, however, be said to be comparatively peaceful states
in the region. In Tripura, effective counter-insurgency
measures have brought down the level of insurgent activities.
In Meghalaya, peace talk was offered to Hynniewtrep
National Liberation Council (HNLC) in October 2008 but
was rejected by the militant outfit. But still the level
of insurgent activity is very low there. Similar is
the case of Mizoram. Arunachal Pradesh was brought under
the unified command structure in December 2008 to deal
with the insurgency problem. The state, however, has
no local militant outfit but is used by other militant
outfits of the northeastern region as a transit route
to Myanmar.
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