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 hile
military operations against the insurgency movements
in the Northeast have achieved only limited results,
it is the dialogue for peace with them that has brought
some order to the region. Dialogue with the Mizo National
Front (MNF) culminated in the signing of the Mizo Peace
Accord in 1986 ending the 20-year-long insurrection
in the entire state of Mizoram in 1986. The December
3, 2003 en masse surrender of the cadres of the Bodo
Liberation Tigers (BLT) and subsequent formation of
the Bodoland Territorial Council (BTC) solved a near
decade long insurgency in the areas inhabited by the
Bodo tribals in Assam. Such experiences, however, have
remained rare events. Other peace deals such as the
Shillong Accord in 1975 with the Naga National Council
(NNC) in Nagaland, the 1988 agreement with the Tripura
National Volunteers (TNV) in Tripura, the Bodoland Autonomous
Council (BAC) agreement of 1993 with the Bodo hardliners
in Assam fell through as new factions, dissatisfied
with the terms of the agreement resumed hostilities
under new leaderships.
At present, the Union government has ongoing ceasefire
agreements with several insurgent groups in different
states. The oldest one with the National Socialist Council
of Nagaland-Isak-Muivah (NSCN-IM) dates back to July
25, 1997 and the other one with its bete noire, the
National Socialist Council of Nagaland-Khaplang (NSCN-K)
has lasted since April 28, 2001. In Assam, the following
organizations have ceasefire agreements with the government:
Adivasi Cobra Militant Force (ACMF) since September
19, 2001, Dima Halim Daogah (DHD) since January 1, 2003,
the United People’s Democratic Solidarity (UPDS)
since May 23, 2002, Birsa Commando Force (BCF) since
August 14, 2004 and the National Democratic Front of
Bodoland (NDFB) since May 25, 2005. The Alfa and Charlie
companies of the ULFA's 28th Battalion are also on a
ceasefire with the government since June 24, 2008. But,
the anti-talk factions of the NDFB and DHD are still
active. However, after the arrest of their leader, Jewel
Garlossa, the anti-talk faction of DHD has also declared
a unilateral ceasefire for three months starting June
7, 2009.
Similarly, in the state of Meghalaya, the Achik National
Volunteer Council (ANVC) has had a ceasefire agreement
with the government since July 23, 2004. In Manipur,
the Government has signed Suspension of Operations (SoO)
with the Kuki rebel outfits on Aug 22, 2008. In Tripura,
the Nayanbashi Jamatiya faction of the National Liberation
Front of Tripura (NLFT) has been observing a ceasefire
with the government since March 2004.
The insurgents, too, have used the tactic of peace
to gain strategic advantage vis-à-vis the security
forces. This has been the most evident in case of the
United Liberation Front of Asom (ULFA) in Assam. Beginning
the early 1990s, when nearly half of the ULFA's existing
cadres came overground responding to the then Assam
Chief Minister Hiteswar Saikia's appeal for peace, ULFA
has tended to show its inclination for a process of
dialogue with the government, whenever the outfit is
in trouble. The Government has mostly responded in good
faith, often acting contrary to the advices of the army
authorities, only to find that the outfit has used the
interregnum for bolstering its dwindling strength. Another
example of this tactic was on display in 2005, when
the outfit, with many of its senior leaders and cadres
encircled in the Manabhum Reserve Forest in Arunachal
Pradesh, constituted the People's Consultative Group
(PCG) to prepare the ground work for negotiations with
the government. Pressured by the people, the government
called off the military operations allowing the cornered
ULFA leaders/cadres to get a breather. The PCG held
three rounds of dialogue with the union government over
a period of one year. The process, however, collapsed
in September 2006 as both sides continued proposing
conditions and counter-conditions. In the meantime,
the outfit had sufficiently strengthened itself to pose
sufficient challenges to the security forces.
However, after the arrests of top leaders of the ULFA
in November-December 2009, the process of holding peace
talks have speeded up. The government has already shown
its interest in holding talks with the outfit, with
or without the presence of ULFA ‘commander-in-chief’
Paresh Baruah.
In April 2010, a group of eminent citizens of Assam,
led by eminent intellectual Dr Hiren Gohain, formed
a state level convention, ‘Sanmilita Jatiya Abhivartan’,
in order to restore peace between the insurgents and
the government and facilitate an environment for effective
peace talks between the two. The convention called upon
both New Delhi and the ULFA to come forward for the
negotiation table without any pre-condition (and without
delay). In a draft resolution, the convention called
upon the government to pave way for free passages to
the jailed ULFA leaders so that they can go for an agreed
decision (in their central committee meeting) to talk
to New Delhi.
But the response that the convention received from
Paresh Barua was not comfortable for it. In a prompt
statement e-mailed to the media, the ULFA ‘commander-in-chief’
not only criticized the convention for its initiative,
but also alleged that they had not adequate knowledge
about the freedom movement of ULFA. He also asserted
that there would be no talks without the issue of ‘sovereignty’
being discussed.
On May 26, 2010, the Assam State Cabinet decided to
start the process of talks with the ULFA without Paresh
Baruah. However, the Government also made it clear that
the anti-insurgency operations against those who try
to indulge in violence would continue. The available
members of the ULFA’s general council met on May
28, 2010 in Guwahati Central Jail to take a decision
regarding peace talks with the government. However,
they decided that it was not proper to start talks without
its commander-in-chief Paresh Barua. The ULFA leaders
also made it clear that only the release of the central
committee leaders of the outfit would facilitate the
policy making body of the ULFA to take vital decisions.
On May 30, 2010, Assam Chief Minister, Tarun Gogoi asked
the ULFA to formally apprise the government of its decision
on opening peace talks. He said the rebel group should
tell the government what they want and the government
would discuss their proposals in detail and do whatever
was possible to get the talk process going.
On June 22, 2010 a six-member delegation of the Sanmilita
Jatiya Abhivartan met with Prime Minister Manmohan Singh
and asked him to revive peace talks between the Government
and ULFA. The delegation also discussed the possible
release of jailed ULFA leaders to boost peace talks.
But the government said that it would not release the
jailed leaders. The members of the convention again
met the Prime Minister, UPA Chairperson Sonia Gandhi
and Home Minister P Chidambaram during 21-26 July, 2010
and urged them to expedite the process for starting
the peace process.
On July 15, 2010 the Centre appointed PC Haldar, former
Director (IB), as interlocutor to take forward the process
of initiating peace process with the ULFA. He is also
the interlocutor for talks with NDFB, DHD (J) and UPDS.
The state government, in order to facilitate the peace
talks with ULFA, have started not objecting to the bail
pleas of the jailed ULFA leaders. This has paved the
way for their release and already all the top leaders
of the ULFA are out of the jail. This include chairman
Arabinda Rajkhowa, vice chairman Pradip Gogoi, publicity
chief Mithinga Daimary, deputy commander-in-chief Raju
Baruah, finance secretary Chitraban Hazarika, foreign
secretary Sasadhar Choudhury, cultural secretary Pranati
Deka, and political ideologue Bhimkanta Buragohain.
There are also chances of ULFA general secretary Anup
Chetia being extradited to India to help him take part
in the proposed peace talks. Now expectations are on
for a meeting of the ULFA general council soon, which
will decide the outfit’s stand on the peace talks.
A rift within the ULFA became visible when ULFA sent
out a message declaring continuation of its fight for
a sovereign Assam. The message was accompanied with
a photograph of Paresh Barua and armed cadres of ULFA
in battle fatigues. For the first time since its formation,
ULFA also sent a video footage showing Paresh Barua
and the ULFA cadres. The video displayed ULFA cadres
giving slogans against peace talks and vowing to fight
for a sovereign Assam. The photograph was sent on 20
January, 2011 and the video on 21 January, 2011.
On the other hand, after the arrest of NDFB chief Ranjan
Daimary, the Bodo heartland seems to have taken a sigh
of relief. Ranjan Daimary has agreed for peace talks
and said that he would be able to make his commanders
and cadres surrender if New Delhi was keen for negotiations.
But the faction is still carried on its subversive activities.
However, on January 2011, the faction declared a unilateral
truce with the government of India in response to the
government's call for negotiations.
The situation in the hill district of Karbi Anglong
in Assam is also peaceful. Both the insurgent outfits
of the district are on a ceasefire mode with the government.
The UPDS also held a round of peace talks with the central
government and the state government on 22 December 2010
in New Delhi where all the three sides approved a draft
accord paving the way for the signing of a memorandum
of agreement (MoA).
Civil society groups in the Northeast have played
key roles in the conflict management/resolution process.
Both the Young Mizo Association (YMA) and the Church
played significant roles in the finalisation of the
Mizo Accord. In Nagaland, the Naga Hoho, the Church,
the Naga Mothers' Association (NMA) have been instrumental
in the 1997 ceasefire between the NSCN-IM and New Delhi.
In the resolution of the BLT insurgency, organisations
like the Bodo Sahitya Sabha (BSS) and the All Bodo Students
Union (ABSU) have made crucial contributions. In Manipur,
the Meira Paibis (Women Torch bearers) have made significant
attempts for the establishment of peace. In Meghalaya,
the role of the Church in bringing the ANVC overground
is crucial. In Assam, the All Assam Students Union (AASU)
and the Assam Sahitya Sabha have made several attempts
at establishing peace.
It is important to note, however, that the effectiveness
of these organisations, have depended on the level of
acceptability that these have enjoyed with the insurgents.
Thus, whereas the Church, as a pressure group and a
peace broker, has been successful in Christian majority
states of Nagaland, Mizoram and Meghalaya, efficacy
of community based organisations in Assam, Manipur and
Tripura has only been marginal.
Whereas ceasefire agreements have led to a reduction
in the insurgency-related fatalities in the respective
states, the Union government has not been able to carve
out a road map toward a situation of permanent agreement.
In many cases, the process of dialogue is yet to formally
start with the outfits. For example, not a single round
of formal dialogue has started with the UPDS, DHD, ACF,
NDFB and the ANVC despite these groups entering into
a truce with the authorities. It has created enough
divisions among the outfits’ cadres and more often
than not, a sizeable section of the outfits has deserted
the parent group to start the ‘war’ afresh.
The insurgent groups under ceasefire, on the other hand,
have taken advantage of the protracted peace processes
and continued with their activities such as extortion
and abduction with impunity. In Nagaland, fratricidal
clashes between the NSCN-IM and the NSCN-K have remained
a major issue of concern. In Assam, even after its moves
for peace, ULFA continues to indulge in sporadic acts
of violence.
Lack of success of the peace processes has further
created enough misgivings among the active insurgent
outfits about the sincerity of the government to drive
the negotiations to their logical conclusions. For example
in Manipur, the valley based insurgent outfits including
the United National Liberation Front (UNLF) have raised
frequent questions about the usefulness of a ceasefire
with the government and have called for resolution of
the conflict only with the intervention of the United
Nations (UN). The talks with NSCN (IM), the latest being
held in March 2009 at Zurich in Switzerland, have also
not succeeded in setting the stage for a solution to
the Naga problem.
Tripura, Meghalaya, Mizoram and Arunachal Pradesh
can, however, be said to be comparatively peaceful states
in the region. In Tripura, effective counter-insurgency
measures have brought down the level of insurgent activities.
In Meghalaya, peace talk was offered to Hynniewtrep
National Liberation Council (HNLC) in October 2008 but
was rejected by the militant outfit. But still the level
of insurgent activity is very low there. Similar is
the case of Mizoram. Arunachal Pradesh was brought under
the unified command structure in December 2008 to deal
with the insurgency problem. The state, however, has
no local militant outfit but is used by other militant
outfits of the northeastern region as a transit route
to Myanmar.
(Updated till 26 January, 2011)
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